Crisis and Backlash

How Trump's agenda will ultimately fail, and upend American politics.

In times of great economic and social upheaval, centrism becomes unpalatable to most voters. Centrism is not really an ideology, its the truest form of conservatism in that it seeks not to upend the present status quo, and for the last 44 years that has been Neoliberalism, aka Reaganism. In 2016 the American center began to break down as the coalitions that made up the two parties began to splinter and reorganize. Over the next 4 years we will see the collapse of the American center as everything most people believed to be true unravels. This was going to happen no matter who won in 2024, but with the government under a Trump-led Republican trifecta, the situation will be far more painful and chaotic. In this installment of the Collapse of the American Center, we get into just what the next 4 years could look like.

Hispanic Spring

In 2024, around 46% of Hispanic/Latino voters threw their support to Trump, but after 2025 we will likely see the Hispanic community become solidly Democratic for a generation. While many Hispanics will applaud the removal of recent arrivals from Venezuela and Central America, so long as the removals are out of sight, the reaction will be far different once law enforcement in compliant states/cities start marching into neighborhoods and arresting people. Remember of the 65.2 million Hispanics in the US 16.7 million share a home with someone who is undocumented, and that person is usually a parent. Around 3.5 million people in the US are Dreamers, adults and teenagers who came to the US as very young children or infants. In addition, the Trump administration now seeks to strip U.S. citizens who already completed the legal naturalization process and plans to deprive children born in the US of birthright citizenship. Even a fraction of these policies stand to deliver a great deal of trauma to immigrant communities, with Hispanics being the most targeted by Trump. If you want to know what a backlash to these policies can look like, look no further than the California Republican Party after 1994.

On November 1994, California Republicans pushed through a ballot initiative, known as Prop 187, also known at the time as the "Save Our State (SOS)" initiative. Prop 187 sought to create a state-run citizenship screening system and prohibit illegal immigrants from accessing public services, with health care and public education being given the highest priority. Prop 187 passed by nearly 18 points, but once implemented the new law faced immediate backlash from Latinos across the state. Prop 187 has been credited to the Republicans becoming all but non-viable in California, having lost every subsequent Presidential contest, Senate race, and all but 2 governors races since. Upon implementing a far more egregious series of policies, the Republicans face the prospect of a similar sort of backlash. As children are torn from their parents arms and people are herded into detention camps, we will see nation-wide demonstrations comparable to the 2020 George Floyd Protests. While I suspect Trump will gleefully use these protests to double down on his use of the military against Hispanic communities, doing so will only seal his party's fate with Hispanic voters.

Seeing an opportunity going into 2026, Democratic mayors and governors will increase their resistance to Trump's anti-immigrant policies to win over Hispanics. This will include enforcement refusals, legal challenges and pardons, and potential clashes with ICE and BORTAC agents through the intervention of state and local officers. When local cops side with the White House over state and local government, calls to Defund or Abolish those police departments will grow. When local cops carry out excessive force or kill suspected undocumented immigrants, those calls will start to come from inside City Councils and Statehouses. This will in turn be used by Trump as further justification to declare Martial Law in multiple American cities, which will lead to more violence.

Trump's Recession

The US economy will slip into a recession sometime in the next 4 years, potentially before the 2026 midterms depending on the severity of tariffs and deportations. What is an absolute certainty is that Trump will be unable to improve the fortunes of most Americans in the next 2 years even if his most malicious goals are stalled. Tax cuts will benefit a very small percentage of the electorate, and will be unable to free up labor to reduce inflation because the labor pool has already been drained. Meanwhile, Trump's tariffs and deportations will cause price spikes across all sectors in his first year in office. Businesses will show record profits as they gouge their customers, but as Canadian oil & gas, Mexican, Chinese, and German machine tools and vehicles, and of course Coffee all get more expensive, productivity will fall. With boomers retiring, Millennials and Zoomers unable to replace them, and immigration halted or reversed, productivity will fall further and inflation will rise from supply chain interruptions and competition for labor. All of this will lead to an overall decline in consumer spending as rising wages fail to keep up with rising prices. The Personal Savings Rate will fall to zero and credit card debt will continue to grow, leading to defaults. Once the stock market panics and the Housing Market crashes, most household equity will be wiped out, and many people's credit will be so bad they'll be unable to secure apartments, leading to a surge in homelessness. This last point would be bad enough, but Trump and many Democratic politicians have taken a hard line on homelessness promising to round people up into Tent Cities or arrest those who refuse. I can already see the memes wryly calling these places "Freedom Cities," although personally I prefer Sanctuary Districts.

With a sizable number of Americans in financial ruin, and millions forced into Tent Cities, people's appetite for radical politics will reach all time highs. For most Americans, this will be the brand of progressivism championed by the likes of Bernie Sanders or Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, but I could easily see more radical ideologies like Communism gain support while reactionaries fall deeper into Fascism. This climate of instability will breed fear and anger, which will inevitably lead to protests and riots. This won't happen all at once, hopelessness and depression will take time to morph into discontent and violence. But as we approach the midterms, demonstrations from people feeling the economic pain of Trump's policies will ramp up. The backlash from Hispanics will coincide with this wave of demonstrations, creating a roiling cauldron from which a new political coalition will form. It won't fully materialize by the midterms, but over the next 4 years it will eventually come to dominate national politics as the economic situation gets more dire. Do not expect Trump to reverse course on the economy, if anything he will double down, insisting that he's clearing the way for a "more stable" system.

Midterms

Anyone who's experienced American politics for any amount of time knows that a President who fails to improve the country's economic outlook is going to see his party lose seats in the midterms. A President who sees the economy get worse on his watch, is in for a shellacking. In 2026, the Republicans will face a reversal in fortunes at least comparable to the 2006 midterms, however given the deteriorating state of the economy, and the backlash to Trump's deportations, Republicans could face a midterm wipeout comparable to 1930. At time of writing the GOP is expected to be defending 22 seats to the Democrats 13 in the Senate, a House majority unlikely to grow between January and the election, and half of the 36 states holding elections for governor. Looking at some of the closer races in 2024 and 2022 provides some clues to where Democrats stand to gain in 2026: Ohio, Montana, Texas, Nebraska, Florida, Alaska, North Carolina, and Iowa could all be in play, although I have no doubt that the state-level Republicans will attempt to constrain ballot access wherever they can to stop the bleeding. This isn't good news to every Democrat by the way, as many will oppose the demands from the growing Progressive coalition in the US and face primary challenges.

As for Trump, we should be fully prepared for him to use any military units or federal agents deployed to suppress demonstrations to reduce ballot access. Even with Trump's purges of the armed forces however, the military may not be an effective tool for this aim. The military is first and foremost loyal to the US Constitution. Every soldier knows that they can be punished for following an unlawful order and may not plead superior orders as a defense. So even if Trump manages to purge the Joint Chiefs and all their deputies, AND gets nothing but toadies confirmed by the Senate, he now has to expect officers from subordinate Generals all the way down to buck privates to follow illegal orders. That assumes that Trump actually gives coherent orders, and that his orders go through the proper channels instead of being communicated through social media. Moreover, Trump will face troop shortages, partly as a result of his purges, partly from ongoing recruiting shortfalls, and from resignations of career soldiers disgusted with his treatment of the armed forces. Further, Trump's plans to deploy US forces to and over the US-Mexican border will further constrain his ability to use the military to enforce his will through overextension of remaining troops.

With the military at least partially hollowed out by Trump's own hand, or unwilling/unable to execute his will, Trump will seek to use organizations like ICE and BORTAC along with local law enforcement and paramilitary organizations much as he did during the 2020 George Floyd Protests. As Trump is not a rational actor, if he deploys troops and federal agents to quash dissent, he probably won't do it to cities in swing states. He'll do what he did in 2020 and prioritize left-wing strongholds in Blue States as a show of force/revenge against his detractors. In states with Republican trifectas, police and the National Guard will be used more effectively to preserve the GOP's power, and Trump could use the Law Enforcement Support Office (LESO) to transfer more military equipment to the states that support his policies. Unfortunately for Republicans, this simply won't be enough to save their party's prospects. In a wave election, cities aren't the only places that flip their votes, the suburbs and exurbs do too. To save the Republicans from disaster, Red States would have to reduce balloting locations as much as possible, while Blue States will want to expand the franchise. After election day, even with all the efforts to constrain people from voting, the Democrats have a high probability of winning majorities in both houses.

Countermoves

Trump will face a hostile Congress in 2027 with both chambers controlled by Democrats, stalling his legislative agenda. What he will not face is a Senate with enough Democrats to override a veto, meaning that from 2027 to 2029, the government will remain paralyzed. Any attempt Trump makes to install toadies will be blocked by the Senate, forcing him to appoint a lot of unqualified acting cabinet officials who can only serve for 90 days. A Democrat-controlled Senate means his attempts to purge the military will also be halted. Further, he'll face renewed investigations from both chambers, and probably at least one more impeachment trial.

The House Democratic Leadership will be very different from any we've seen before. In all probability the Congressional Progressive Caucus will have outright control of the party, and we should expect not only changes to committee assignments, but changes to how those assignments are chosen. At present, Committee leadership in the House is associated with seniority for the Democrats, while the Republicans choose Committee leaders based on voting records and campaign fundraising. I expect that calls for reform to begin in 2026, although the old guard might be able to resist this effort for at least one more election. Since only a few Senators can be primaried or added to the Democratic Caucus, it will remain firmly in the hands of the New Democrats. That said, if even a couple Senators are primaried the leadership is far more likely to go along with at least some tentpoles of the progressive agenda to save their own skin. This will lead to the Congress pushing an overtly progressive agenda, one that will include calls for housing reforms, Medicare for All, constitutional reforms, and possibly amnesty for undocumented immigrants. Any bills will of course be vetoed by Trump, there will be debt ceiling issues and government shutdowns, but those pushing these reforms will grow in prominence in advance of the next elections while hostility toward the Republicans will continue to grow.

At the state level, the midterms will divide the country more clearly than ever before. Democratic governments will make some progressive tentpoles law, while Republicans will grow more radical in their politics in response. In addition to book bans, bathroom bills, and abortion bans, we should be fully prepared for red states to reintroduce sodomy laws, head-and-master laws , and constitutional changes designed to create permanent Republican majorities. None of these reforms will pull the US out of its economic nosedive, meaning discontent, demonstrations, and violence will only grow, save for a handful of states and cities that adopt progressive economic reforms, although expect these to be challenged and overturned in the courts. Consequently, trust in institutions will continue to fall and acceptance of radical politics will only grow in advance of the 2028 election.

Trump 2028

With his power limited by the Democratic Congress, Trump will be forced to rely more on a hollowed out administrative state and Republican governors to execute his agenda. These governors will see the writing on the wall going into 2028. The party in its present form cannot survive the crisis of their own making, and the party at large will be horrified at the prospect of a progressive-controlled Democratic party winning a trifecta. So while there will be the standard prognostication from the press that THIS TIME the GOP will break from Trump and seek a more sustainable future, they will of course fall deeper into Trumpism. As Trump does not have anything close to the votes to repeal the 22nd Amendment he won't be at the top of the ticket going into 2028. But make no mistake, the Republican nominee in 2028 will be a Trump. The party has already been hollowed out to the point that Trump practically ran unopposed in 2024, and the Trumpian cult of personality is so ingrained in what it means to be a Republican that it is difficult to imagine how anyone else could lead the MAGA movement. Vance, even if he's the acting or sitting President due to Don Sr.'s death or incapacitation, will lose in the primary to Don Jr. There will be a pointless string of debates, donors will give money to other candidates, but just like in 2024 and 2020 the party's base will move in lock step behind the name Trump, which will be more than enough support to win him the primary.

The Republican Convention of 2028 will be the craziest yet, mostly as a reaction to the perceived threat of the Progressives. Calls for violence against political opponents, minority groups and in particular the Hispanic Community will be overt. The Trumps will be given carte blanche to write the party platform by decree, and it will be the stuff of nightmares, including formal endorsements of the most radical policies from the red states, and more than likely a pledge by the party to not recognize any winner but their party's nominee regardless of election results. There is a possibility that more moderate conservatives will form a third party ticket in 2028, and while such a ticket would attract its fair share of supporters and donor money, its only impact will be to signal the demise of the Reagan Coalition.

The New New Dealers

As for the Democrats, we can expect a crowded field, with big donor money centered on mostly-white, male, moderate candidates because that's where money almost always goes. I'm not going to predict the specific candidates who will run, or even who will win, because frankly it doesn't matter. What I can predict, and what very much matters is what kind of Democrat will win the primary and the election. A crowded field of empty shirt white guys (a literal load of whites) won't be able to consolidate the Neoliberal wing of the party (the New Democrats). The economic situation will make neoliberalism seem woefully out of touch to most voters, particularly the growing progressive alliance of Hispanics and economically disaffected people from the cities and blighted suburbs. This means that the winner will be a Progressive. This candidate will win by building a new coalition from the one the Democrats have relied on since the 1980s. The core of this coalition will not included a unified labor movement, as industrial manufacturers are likely to increase their support to the Republicans as they will be one of the only demographics to benefit from his protectionist, labor constraining policies. For the Democrats, priority will be given to service & hospitality workers, health care workers, and high tech/green manufacturing laborers in the Sunbelt. Democratic turnout in cities and suburbs will swell in support of this candidate, and there will be noticeable defections from Trump voters. However, given the desperate state of the nation in 2028, virtually every demographic will see bleed over to the Democrats, save for White Christian Nationalists. Even Business Conservatives will see some bleed over as their portfolios dwindle to nothing, but they'll still mostly hold to Trump.

Republican nominee will lose because the economy will be in shambles on the party's watch and trust in the Republican party as an institution will be at an all time low. The Democratic nominee will win every state Harris won in 2024 in addition to most 2024 swing states, and probably some surprises like Kansas or Alaska. Some red states like Texas and Florida would have swung for the Democratic candidate, except that these states will likely have by far the largest presence of federal agents commanding local law enforcement to limit ballot access in major cities. Moreover, the Democratic candidate will struggle to gain ballot access in many Red States, and may very well be denied access outright. There will be the standard effort to purge voter rolls, and to use Trump's anti-immigrant policies to deny people the franchise, but at the end of the day the Republicans are going to lose, and they'll know it.

The Democrats will be positioned to expand their lead in the House and Senate to near-supermajority status. The Democratic nominee, or more accurately the Democratic platform will be the most progressive in living memory, and the party will have the votes and the will to make their platform a reality. This will be so offensive to Republicans that they will go beyond their now old tactic of denying the election results, and will use violence to stop the Democrats from taking office. We should prepare for Trump or Vance to order the arrest or assassinations of prominent Democrats during the election, attacks against Democratic offices and organizations by local police and partisans, all while voters will be abused and hounded on a level not experienced since Jim Crow. The results on election night and the following weeks will be denied and challenged by any means available to the Republicans. The right-wing media sphere will call for Trump to remain in office, and Red State trifectas will vote to simply recognize their candidate as the President. During the certification of the election, everyone will expect another January 6th, which is why Democrats will use whatever means at their disposal to protect themselves like requesting the military defend the Capitol, or possibly meeting in a blue state to certify the election results there.

However the drama of the election and post-election crisis shakes out, the end result will be the same: the United States will have two governments and in practice two militaries. The Democratic President will be the lawful President of the United States, the military will be duty bound to follow their orders. There would likely be widespread violence around Inauguration Day 2029, particularly as Federal troops clash with Republican paramilitaries for control of DC and essential military bases. These will be the first battles of what will be a period of widespread violence unlike anything America has seen since the Civil War, and it will disrupt ordinary life on a level that only the likes of Syrian and Ukrainian refugees can truly understand. But that is a topic for another day.

Click here to read Part I, here to read Part II, and here to read Part III